Shameless-Workout-Orchard
0x4d86949e352449ab09706267910a0e8b6d4e1cb2
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$355.39
Total PnL
$-59.88
Realised
$107.42
Win rate
42%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
16933 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.93
$11.07
- NO
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
333 shares @ 6.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.66
$16.66
- YES
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3333 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$28.33
$-1.67
- YES
Trump signs housing bill by end of July?
5392 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.96
$-22.83
- NO
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
2325 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.25
$3.40
- YES
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?
2653 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.57
$-2.66
- NO
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?
503 shares @ 3.4¢·now 2.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$14.34
$-2.91
- YES
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.75
$-1.25
- YES
Will Barbora Krejcikova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
625 shares @ 0.8¢·now 1.2¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$7.50
$2.50
- YES
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.88
$1.88
Recent activity
- TRADESELLAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$1.00Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$305.01Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$43.89Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$3.42Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$51.68Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$3.90Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$1.02Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$10.00Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$10.00Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$10.00Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$10.00Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$8.22Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$0.20Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$0.20Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$0.20Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$0.20Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$0.20Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$0.20Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$0.58Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets$10.00Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 19:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.