Thoughtful-Economics
0x4d8c5025d44649cb50d87fc784f282602e167782
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$9.36
Total PnL
$-188.64
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
456 shares @ 32.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.36
$-140.64
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
459 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- ROMAN DOLIDZE
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)
333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Movsar Evloev win by KO or TKO?
80 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
29 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
24 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?$10.00Mar 24, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$50.00Mar 22, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$238.44Mar 22, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)$10.00Mar 21, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the fight be won by KO or TKO?$10.00Mar 21, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Movsar Evloev win by KO or TKO?$10.00Mar 21, 20:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$0.00Mar 20, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$0.00Mar 20, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$0.00Mar 20, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?$0.00Mar 20, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$0.00Mar 20, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$0.00Mar 20, 07:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $24.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 19:02 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 24, 17:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".