Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-147.00

Realised

$-6.67

Win rate

27 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 27

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
2042 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.03
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET
1084 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10AM ET
163 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET
156 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET
84 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
49 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
YES
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
OVER
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
47 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$3.94Aug 14, 21:47 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$4.11Aug 14, 21:46 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.07Aug 14, 21:44 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.45Aug 14, 21:43 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.06Aug 14, 21:42 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - August 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$9.26Aug 14, 17:07 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$7.07Aug 14, 17:05 UTC
TRADESELLWill Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?$7.11Aug 12, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?$4.62Aug 12, 20:05 UTC
TRADESELLWill Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?$2.27Aug 12, 19:50 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?$1.05Aug 12, 19:36 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5$5.22Jul 19, 18:46 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$20.68Jul 19, 18:44 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?$2.09Jul 19, 18:43 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?$0.84Jul 19, 18:41 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?$0.87Jul 19, 18:41 UTC
TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$27.22Jul 19, 18:41 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?$0.95Jul 19, 18:38 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$28.78Jul 19, 14:52 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?$0.91Jul 19, 14:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

54/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 27 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence90 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry30 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $7.13
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 17:48 UTC
Last active: Aug 14, 21:47 UTC
Win rate sample: 27 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:47:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data