Mysterious-Plowman
0x4d9d7f303dde919abc0bd299bbb3b2ef9e29eabf
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
45
Open notional
$65.52
Total PnL
$-39.51
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
4 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$4.41
$0.05
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
4 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$3.90
$0.01
- NO
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
4 shares @ 94.7¢·now 87.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.82
$-0.34
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
4 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$3.80
$0.00
- NO
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by less than 5%?
4 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$3.60
$0.29
- NO
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$3.48
$-0.81
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
3 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.36
$0.04
- YES
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
3 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$3.24
$0.11
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
3 shares @ 96.9¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.12
$-0.08
- NO
Exact Score: CD Unión La Calera 2 - 2 Everton de Viña del Mar?
1 shares @ 96.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.48
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$1.46Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 27?$1.35Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 27?$1.35Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 27?$1.32Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 27?$1.30Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 27?$1.30Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 27?$1.30Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1.29Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 220-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$1.26Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLFK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc vs. FCSB: O/U 5.5$1.46Jul 26, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)$1.40Jul 26, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Tigres de la UANL 1 - 1 Atlético San Luis?$1.42Jul 26, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Tigres de la UANL 3 - 0 Atlético San Luis?$1.42Jul 26, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Tigres de la UANL 3 - 1 Atlético San Luis?$1.45Jul 26, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMTigres de la UANL vs. Atlético San Luis: Atlético San Luis O/U 2.5$1.48Jul 26, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMTigres de la UANL vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 0.5$1.48Jul 26, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast say "Survivor" during his next YouTube video?$2.45Jul 26, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast say "Calendar" during his next YouTube video?$2.46Jul 26, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: CD Unión La Calera 2 - 2 Everton de Viña del Mar?$1.43Jul 25, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Tigres de la UANL 2 - 2 Atlético San Luis?$1.44Jul 25, 22:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 21:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.