Realistic-Brocolli
0x4da4830c86258435753671bb261ebe8de7f45535
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$445.15
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-1.1K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
223 shares @ 81.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$178.11
$-2.23
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
1000 shares @ 10.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$150.00
$50.00
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
1525 shares @ 2.6¢·now 4.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$62.53
$22.16
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800 by July 31?
2000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.00
$2.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
62 shares @ 9.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.45
$5.88
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
16 shares @ 55.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.07
$1.48
- NO
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
24 shares @ 28.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.79
$0.00
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
329 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$5.76
$2.14
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.05T by July 31?
57 shares @ 6.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.70
$2.28
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
7 shares @ 32.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.75
$0.46
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800 by July 31?$10.00Jul 27, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$1.14Jul 24, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$1.14Jul 24, 14:55 UTC
- REWARD$3.94Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?$3.89Jul 20, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$0.94Jul 20, 12:40 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$6.77Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$8.69Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$3.2KJul 19, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$4.22Jul 19, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$1.63Jul 19, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$2.1KJul 19, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$2.5KJul 19, 20:48 UTC
- REWARD$9.38Jul 19, 00:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.74Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$11.62Jul 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?$2.90Jul 17, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$31.51Jul 17, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$128.00Jul 17, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$0.49Jul 17, 17:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $325.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 12:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 02:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.