Alarmed-Pit
0x4de4438f72b91a1b959adad6e1325e11c66b5dd5
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$1.21
Total PnL
$-227.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
51 shares @ 39.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.21
$-18.79
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
4440 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-55.00
- YES
Will Bill Clinton say "President" or "Trump" 3+ times during his Epstein testimony?
1977 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?
1373 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-54.00
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?
438 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
266 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?
236 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
160 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?$9.00Mar 8, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?$3.80Mar 7, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 7?$5.53Mar 7, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLHouthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?$0.11Mar 7, 23:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump's remarks not air?$0.00Mar 6, 07:41 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5?$0.00Mar 6, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5?$0.00Mar 6, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike seven countries in March?$0.00Mar 6, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 7?$25.00Mar 6, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$10.00Mar 5, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 6?$30.00Mar 5, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5?$10.00Mar 5, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?$15.00Mar 5, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$15.00Mar 5, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?$20.00Mar 5, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?$30.00Mar 5, 04:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$21.25Mar 4, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLQatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?$20.79Mar 4, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?$5.11Mar 4, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?$27.13Mar 4, 19:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $18.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 3, 12:29 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 8, 17:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".