Wrong-Politics
0x4df07abb9317983ac3d4c946284adc7c5f249eda
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-6.3K
Realised
$-407.23
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
685 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$684.93
$184.93
- YES
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
266 shares @ 75.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$265.60
$65.60
- YES
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
110 shares @ 90.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$110.44
$10.44
- YES
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?
109 shares @ 91.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$109.02
$9.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
2282 shares @ 87.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
1839 shares @ 81.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- YES
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
1627 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
1389 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-1000.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 11AM ET
668 shares @ 74.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-19?
642 shares @ 77.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?$201.98Jun 9, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?$100.00Jun 9, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?$100.00Jun 9, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?$500.00Jun 9, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLMegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes?$658.77Nov 25, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYMegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes?$1000.00Nov 25, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLMegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour?$1.4KNov 25, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour?$1.5KNov 25, 08:09 UTC
- REDEEMBYU vs. Cincinnati$0.18Nov 25, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zoom Communications (ZM) beat quarterly earnings?$214.13Nov 25, 08:08 UTC
- TRADESELLPistons vs. Pacers$148.52Nov 24, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLKnicks vs. Nets$98.86Nov 24, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLMavericks vs. Heat$98.66Nov 24, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLTimberwolves vs. Kings$97.50Nov 24, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Best Buy (BBY) beat quarterly earnings?$97.91Nov 24, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?$96.84Nov 24, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings?$94.54Nov 24, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Burlington Stores (BURL) beat quarterly earnings?$95.79Nov 24, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYPistons vs. Pacers$50.00Nov 24, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLPistons vs. Pacers$48.98Nov 24, 08:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $512.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 21, 14:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 9, 14:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.