Wallet digest

active

Activity score

85/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$340.76

Total PnL

$11.25

Realised

$16.13

Win rate

45%

22 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 78

YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
196 shares @ 18.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026
$145.94
$110.68
NO
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?
15 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$15.00
$7.65
YES
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
14 shares @ 91.5¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026
$13.08
$0.68
NO
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
149 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$10.46
$-1.49
NO
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
10 shares @ 40.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$10.00
$5.93
NO
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?
10 shares @ 47.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$10.00
$5.22
NO
Germany leading at halftime?
10 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$10.00
$4.70
PORTUGAL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)
10 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$10.00
$5.60
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
10 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$10.00
$6.00
YES
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?
7 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$7.01
$1.12

Recent activity

REDEEMArgentina leading at halftime?$0.00Jul 7, 18:26 UTC
TRADEBUYArgentina leading at halftime?$2.49Jul 7, 02:11 UTC
TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: Draw at halftime?$2.69Jul 5, 18:34 UTC
REDEEMParaguay vs. France: Second half draw?$0.00Jul 4, 23:27 UTC
TRADEBUYParaguay vs. France: Second half draw?$3.83Jul 4, 19:25 UTC
REDEEMColombia leading at halftime?$0.00Jul 4, 03:52 UTC
TRADEBUYColombia leading at halftime?$2.59Jul 4, 00:51 UTC
REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees$5.00Jul 3, 23:38 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees$2.89Jul 3, 22:55 UTC
TRADEBUYAustralia vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime?$2.59Jul 3, 10:32 UTC
REDEEMWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02?$0.00Jul 3, 01:30 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain leading at halftime?$2.19Jul 2, 14:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland leading at halftime?$2.34Jul 1, 14:00 UTC
TRADEBUYMexico vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime?$2.39Jul 1, 00:51 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$2.14Jun 30, 17:18 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$103.09Jun 30, 10:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$6.55Jun 30, 10:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$0.00Jun 30, 10:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$0.00Jun 30, 10:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$0.00Jun 30, 10:43 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

50/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

45% win rate over 22 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

10 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity26 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence73 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk45 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 10
Avg trade size: $2.61
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 30, 10:42 UTC
Last active: Jul 7, 18:26 UTC
Win rate sample: 22 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 08:19:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data