Valid-Special
0x4df8129feffef3bed44a6cc97679cc46a3211310
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-406.00
Realised
$-167.33
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
189 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.38
- NO
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
97 shares @ 30.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
78 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-22.31
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
69 shares @ 36.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
45 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-38.95
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
42 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
40 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-21.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
37 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-18.98
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
20 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-7.93
Recent activity
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$12.06Aug 17, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$10.22Aug 17, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$10.28Aug 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$10.28Aug 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$29.14Aug 17, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$20.62Aug 17, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$31.45Aug 17, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$4.68Aug 17, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET$2.15Aug 17, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET$20.67Aug 17, 18:37 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$22.48Aug 17, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$20.57Aug 17, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$10.46Aug 17, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$15.45Aug 17, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$10.25Aug 17, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$14.30Aug 17, 18:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$5.23Aug 17, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$10.36Aug 17, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$10.27Aug 17, 18:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $17.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 12:55 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 20:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.