Polished-Hardware
0x4e1574a2b8ddf90b72d76df9d3a8bd9bd459d2c9
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$148.50
Total PnL
$2.95
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
51 shares @ 59.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$31.78
$1.78
- YES
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
36 shares @ 55.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$20.61
$0.54
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
769 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$16.46
$-3.54
- YES
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
32 shares @ 47.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$14.68
$-0.32
- YES
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
31 shares @ 35.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$10.71
$0.00
- YES
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists
16 shares @ 43.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$9.52
$2.52
- YES
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists
8 shares @ 49.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$8.12
$4.12
- YES
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists
20 shares @ 44.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$7.12
$-1.83
- YES
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
13 shares @ 46.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$6.39
$0.39
- YES
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals
20 shares @ 16.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$5.40
$2.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFlorian Wirtz: 1+ assists$4.06Jun 14, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYJamal Musiala: 2+ goals$3.28Jun 14, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYKai Havertz: 2+ goals$3.06Jun 14, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYJamal Musiala: 1+ assists$7.12Jun 14, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5$4.06Jun 14, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYJoshua Kimmich: 1+ assists$9.10Jun 14, 16:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?$7.69Jun 14, 02:33 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco?$30.77Jun 14, 00:52 UTC
- REDEEMVinícius Júnior: 1+ goals$6.45Jun 14, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMGranit Xhaka: 1+ assists$0.00Jun 14, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMDan Ndoye: 1+ goals$0.00Jun 14, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMGranit Xhaka: 1+ goals$0.00Jun 14, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland?$0.00Jun 14, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland?$0.00Jun 14, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMQatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 14, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$20.58Jun 13, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?$2.04Jun 13, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYVinícius Júnior: 1+ goals$2.04Jun 13, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$20.34Jun 13, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco?$4.10Jun 13, 21:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $7.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 13:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 16:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.