Virtuous-Grandparent
0x4e30401826a11c3f315047002a4f1898b91e9d3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
160
Open notional
$101.88
Total PnL
$-402.77
Realised
$-6.85
Win rate
1%
129 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 160- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
26 shares @ 30.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$10.99
$3.23
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
26 shares @ 33.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$9.18
$0.65
- YES
Exact Score: Birmingham Legion FC 1 - 0 New Mexico United?
16 shares @ 6.4¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$7.78
$6.78
- YES
Exact Score: Boyacá Chicó FC 0 - 3 Atlético Nacional?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$7.07
$6.07
- YES
Exact Score: Boyacá Chicó FC 0 - 0 Atlético Nacional?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$5.44
$4.44
- YES
Exact Score: Birmingham Legion FC 2 - 1 New Mexico United?
10 shares @ 10.5¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$4.72
$3.72
- YES
Exact Score: Boyacá Chicó FC 1 - 2 Atlético Nacional?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$4.55
$3.55
- YES
Exact Score: Club Nacional de Football 2 - 1 CA Progreso?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.50
$3.50
- YES
Exact Score: CD Coquimbo Unido 1 - 1 CD Universidad de Concepción?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$4.50
$3.50
- YES
Exact Score: CD Coquimbo Unido 3 - 0 CD Universidad de Concepción?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$4.50
$3.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$5.26Aug 20, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$4.07Aug 20, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$8.33Aug 20, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$4.05Aug 20, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$2.06Aug 20, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$4.04Aug 20, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$4.26Aug 20, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$2.07Aug 20, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$4.23Aug 20, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$3.57Aug 20, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$2.06Aug 20, 10:39 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$3.31Aug 20, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$2.06Aug 20, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$2.06Aug 20, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$5.00Aug 20, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$4.06Aug 20, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$4.26Aug 20, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$2.07Aug 20, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$2.06Aug 20, 07:59 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$3.13Aug 20, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 129 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
129 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $2.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 21:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 15:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 129 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.