Cheery-Melon-Vault
0x4e41d4759c5de4a89b2b1fc444f1024e8148a5fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$282.17
Win rate
95%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2439 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
550 shares @ 21.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-116.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
550 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
545 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?
526 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
514 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
453 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
445 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
400 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win on 2026-06-29?$102.43Jun 29, 16:57 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 26, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?$0.00Jun 25, 23:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$0.00Jun 25, 23:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
95% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $10.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 23:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.