Overdue-Shingle-Favor
0x4e476c6a2b84849bbcfdb8789ddf47de4210ab98
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.0K
Realised
$-15.07
Win rate
8%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
2400 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-87.97
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
2400 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-87.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
2100 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-78.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
1650 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
1600 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
1600 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
1600 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-32.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
1600 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
1600 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
1600 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$9.99Aug 17, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$0.05Aug 17, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$0.25Aug 17, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$0.19Aug 17, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$0.01Aug 17, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$0.50Aug 17, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.65Aug 17, 21:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$27.00Aug 17, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$8.91Aug 17, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$5.94Aug 17, 20:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$10.00Aug 17, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$3.96Aug 17, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.50Aug 17, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.77Aug 17, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.87Aug 17, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$0.50Aug 17, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.65Aug 17, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.50Aug 17, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.90Aug 17, 20:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 18:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 22:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.