Bouncy-Vanilla
0x4e4b22344b9dacb9471b7cfbb5187c10013f88ce
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$125.68
Total PnL
$-75.52
Realised
$-1.47
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
349 shares @ 3.7¢·now 4.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.84
$1.84
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
28 shares @ 51.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$12.67
$-1.91
- NO
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
13 shares @ 80.1¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.92
$1.14
- YES
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
26 shares @ 76.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.13
$-9.87
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
11 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$10.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
895 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.61
$-4.39
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
254 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.98
$1.14
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
417 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.04
$1.04
- YES
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
27 shares @ 18.6¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.77
$0.77
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
105 shares @ 3.8¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.42
$1.42
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$4.50Jun 8, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.00Jun 8, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?$10.13Jun 8, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$5.16Jun 8, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$20.19Jun 8, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?$13.89Jun 8, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$8.37Jun 8, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$14.26Jun 8, 07:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 4, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?$6.75Jun 3, 06:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $9.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 05:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.