Vague-Record
0x4e508afa341edd562c930d60177f6ccfe36cd3b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$1.01
Total PnL
$-10.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
1 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
703 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 19?
128 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$78.47May 30, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$78.39May 28, 09:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$78.38May 26, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$78.30May 23, 08:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$78.28May 18, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$78.20May 17, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?$78.08May 13, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?$78.00May 11, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?$78.18May 7, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?$78.11May 7, 02:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$78.11May 7, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$78.03Apr 28, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO by April 30?$2.00Apr 28, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 24?$80.03Apr 28, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 24?$79.96Apr 24, 07:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20?$79.95Apr 24, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20?$79.88Apr 19, 10:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$79.88Apr 19, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$79.73Apr 13, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$1.48Apr 13, 09:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $68.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 1, 03:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 00:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.