Vigilant-Fir
0x4e8cbf5a66bf9c747952674ee3f48ba22141f733
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-138.93
Realised
$-6.79
Win rate
0%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15?
147 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-25.30
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24?
113 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-35.06
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 23?
64 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.39
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18?
53 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.52
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 14?
48 shares @ 17.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-8.41
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 8?
41 shares @ 31.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-12.83
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 13?
39 shares @ 17.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.99
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19?
33 shares @ 14.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.89
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22?
22 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.24
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17?
15 shares @ 31.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.77
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?$10.00Jun 1, 11:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30?$5.00May 30, 18:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?$5.00May 30, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?$3.03May 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30?$2.34May 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30?$4.61May 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?$1.65May 29, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?$1.90May 29, 02:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24?$105.00May 24, 21:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?$97.00May 24, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24?$2.35May 24, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24?$2.35May 24, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24?$7.17May 24, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24?$7.23May 24, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24?$2.35May 24, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?$6.41May 24, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24?$2.35May 23, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24?$7.15May 23, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?$6.49May 23, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24?$2.35May 23, 23:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 21:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 11:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.