Hurtful-Soybean
0x4ea1f16852e8291903ebf8e01fc726911ba74b4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
134
Open notional
$78.07
Total PnL
$-3.8K
Realised
$-42.82
Win rate
33%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 134- NO
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
35 shares @ 84.0¢·now 78.6¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$27.53
$-1.87
- YES
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?
20 shares @ 12.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2026$20.00
$17.60
- NO
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
20 shares @ 84.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.70
$-1.10
- NO
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid?
20 shares @ 42.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$11.50
$3.10
- YES
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
20 shares @ 24.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.90
$-2.90
- NO
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City?
120 shares @ 49.8¢·now 1.2¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$1.44
$-58.35
- YES
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
900 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.70
- YES
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
900 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- YES
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
900 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.70
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?$16.80Jul 1, 03:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $10.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.