Physical-Locket
0x4ea67bdde5af4942a2c8f117730064cbe04ab249
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
120
Open notional
$10.96
Total PnL
$-12.4K
Realised
$-247.95
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 120- YES
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?
2741 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.96
$-189.03
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
16530 shares @ 36.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.0K
- YES
Maduro out in 2025?
9010 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-73.95
- YES
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?
5008 shares @ 19.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-977.08
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
3213 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-125.96
- YES
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?
2677 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-18.02
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
2661 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-94.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
2428 shares @ 49.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?
2222 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?$100.00Jul 25, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$81.63Jul 24, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$269.73Jul 23, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$204.64Jul 22, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$200.00Jul 22, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$0.04Jul 22, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$0.67Jul 22, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$44.50Jul 22, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$2.56Jul 22, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$2.60Jul 22, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$32.36Jul 22, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$172.02Jul 22, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 21?$30.00Jul 21, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 21?$16.27Jul 20, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 21?$20.00Jul 20, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$100.00Jul 20, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?$30.00Jul 18, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?$20.00Jul 18, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$200.00Jul 16, 21:57 UTC
- TRADESELLMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?$161.31Jul 14, 21:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
25/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $101.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 16:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 01:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.