Untidy-Kielbasa
0x4eaed898850c27a6ad096c19a79879816f275238
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-78.61
Win rate
0%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3943 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-123.73
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 5?
2150 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-335.93
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 4?
1754 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-183.28
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on July 10?
1667 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?
1413 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-268.51
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 8?
1048 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-120.34
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 6?
833 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 12?
576 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 20?
518 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.54
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?
393 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-18.82
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 24?$5.00Jul 20, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 23?$10.68Jul 20, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 22?$10.65Jul 20, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 21?$10.67Jul 20, 17:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 20?$36.99Jul 20, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5$6.23Jul 19, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 25?$10.67Jul 19, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 25?$12.73Jul 19, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 20?$5.34Jul 19, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 20?$10.51Jul 19, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$5.15Jul 19, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$5.25Jul 19, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 20?$15.50Jul 13, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$14.05Jul 13, 17:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 13?$5.34Jul 11, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 12?$21.35Jul 11, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England?$5.24Jul 11, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?$5.23Jul 11, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Norway 1 - 0 England?$10.47Jul 11, 07:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
46 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $30.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 20:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 17:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.