Warlike-Shoemaker
0x4eb601e831ba73bbc8e9f9f60aa636af632a5e8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
120
Open notional
$570.60
Total PnL
$-43.50
Realised
$-25.72
Win rate
16%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 120- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 54.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.13
$5.02
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
13 shares @ 73.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.12
$2.66
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.65
$1.77
- YES
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?
11 shares @ 88.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2027$10.66
$0.79
- NO
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
11 shares @ 86.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.39
$0.52
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
18 shares @ 27.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$10.25
$5.42
- YES
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
12 shares @ 41.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$10.24
$5.24
- NO
Iran leadership change by September 30?
11 shares @ 88.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.21
$0.34
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
10 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.89
$0.06
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
10 shares @ 84.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.57
$1.17
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$4.96Jul 27, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$6.11Jul 27, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$3.05Jul 27, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$1.20Jul 27, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$1.67Jul 27, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?$0.90Jul 27, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?$0.87Jul 27, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$5.08Jul 27, 08:56 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$9.99Jul 27, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4.89Jul 26, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.93Jul 26, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$4.94Jul 26, 10:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$4.84Jul 25, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$4.90Jul 25, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$4.92Jul 25, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$1.90Jul 25, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$7.17Jul 25, 19:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
38 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 20:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.