Sardonic-Tolerant
0x4ed5edf7ae8ff72e2907f94bb76a13b5f86cafde
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$7.71
Total PnL
$-555.52
Realised
$5.57
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
114 shares @ 4.4¢·now 6.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.71
$2.71
- YES
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
20513 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-347.48
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes?
448 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-63.44
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
351 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will EA say "Competition" during earnings call?
248 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
130 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
76 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.96
- NO
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
54 shares @ 39.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
20 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.97
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 12, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $32.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 24, 04:47 UTC
- Last active
- May 31, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.