Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-189.40

Realised

$-4.74

Win rate

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 21

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
2467 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-24.67
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
313 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
294 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?
71 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?
40 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
26 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$0.00Jul 11, 04:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$5.35Jul 11, 04:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$0.00Jul 11, 04:54 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$6.10Jul 11, 04:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$5.07Jul 11, 04:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$5.18Jul 11, 04:48 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$6.02Jul 11, 04:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$5.06Jul 11, 04:41 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$7.27Jul 11, 04:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$5.11Jul 11, 04:37 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$0.00Jul 10, 02:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$5.08Jul 10, 02:17 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$5.05Jul 10, 02:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$5.00Jul 10, 02:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$6.85Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$5.09Jul 9, 20:26 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$6.25Jul 9, 20:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$5.07Jul 9, 20:17 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$6.67Jul 9, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$5.09Jul 9, 20:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

44/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry38 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $5.60
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 02:26 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 04:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:15:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data