Smug-Sunday
0x4ef17e79dcfcd12fa7c0414e5abb96c98323d333
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$10.13
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14?
20747 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-38.63
- YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-14?
17020 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-17.02
- YES
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-09?
2175 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-01-22?
1944 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-32.43
- YES
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-01-29?
1626 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-11?
1617 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-10?
1603 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
1541 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-26.20
- YES
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-17?
1535 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 8?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Feb 17, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$0.00Feb 17, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$10.76Feb 17, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$10.00Feb 17, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.60Feb 17, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$20.00Feb 17, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$2.00Feb 17, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$0.30Feb 17, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$2.00Feb 17, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$2.00Feb 17, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$1.00Feb 17, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$24.54Feb 17, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$6.00Feb 17, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-17?$2.00Feb 17, 21:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $6.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 16, 12:49 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 17, 22:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.