Linear-Emergence
0x4ef1b22300007a12cbc3710e3deadc7ae99da513
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-24.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
104319 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-17.0K
- YES
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
26285 shares @ 20.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.4K
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28?
26071 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2025$0.00
$-52.53
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28?
16670 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2025$0.00
$-16.67
- YES
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election?
15000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 10.5–11m?
8752 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-368.09
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28?
7150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2025$0.00
$-7.15
- YES
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 10–10.5m?
6626 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-166.45
- YES
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11–11.5m?
4218 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-412.51
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28?
3750 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2025$0.00
$-23.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$1.0KJun 26, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$29.66Jun 25, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$960.00Jun 25, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$806.20Jun 25, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$83.30Jun 25, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$1.2KJun 25, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$1.3KJun 25, 08:58 UTC
- REWARD$2.71Jun 2, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$150.44Jun 1, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$2.55Jun 1, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$20.95Jun 1, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$1.5KJun 1, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$24.55Jun 1, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$120.00Jun 1, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$4.80Jun 1, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$10.11Jun 1, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$140.18Jun 1, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$42.00Jun 1, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$12.00Jun 1, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$1.3KJun 1, 22:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $472.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 22:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.