Alarmed-Tuber
0x4f382f6cc483356e643d2349b49ebc21ac3c6309
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
168
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-25.47
Win rate
0%
168 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 168- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
983 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-9.83
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
372 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.72
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
26 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.66
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
19 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.16
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
17 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.85
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
17 shares @ 59.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
16 shares @ 55.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.21
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
15 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
15 shares @ 63.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-9.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
13 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$8.25Jul 17, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$7.94Jul 17, 09:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$8.34Jul 17, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$7.95Jul 17, 09:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$8.16Jul 17, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$7.94Jul 17, 09:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$9.30Jul 17, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$8.51Jul 17, 09:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$8.34Jul 17, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$7.95Jul 17, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$8.25Jul 17, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$7.94Jul 17, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$8.25Jul 17, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$7.94Jul 17, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$8.43Jul 17, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$7.88Jul 17, 08:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$8.44Jul 17, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$7.73Jul 17, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$8.43Jul 17, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$7.95Jul 17, 08:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 168 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
168 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $7.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 06:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 10:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 168 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.