Grouchy-Backburn
0x4f4a03d1a9aabc931b8d670912a6cfb58e372f38
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$302.66
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13?
5250 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 19?
4000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30?
3401 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11AM ET
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20?
2584 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.03
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10?
2260 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.98
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 23?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 17?
1568 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-16.87
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14?
1559 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-24.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 11?$2.55Jul 11, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 11?$6.09Jul 11, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 11?$1.11Jul 11, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 11?$6.39Jul 11, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$2.11Jul 10, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 10?$7.48Jul 10, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$1.07Jul 10, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$1.06Jul 10, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.06Jul 10, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.07Jul 10, 11:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$4.00Jul 10, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.05Jul 10, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$1.06Jul 10, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$1.06Jul 10, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$3.45Jul 10, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$1.05Jul 10, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$1.05Jul 10, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$1.05Jul 10, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$1.07Jul 10, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$1.07Jul 10, 10:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 03:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 22:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.