Stained-Pocketbook
0x4f4f3abcba7127b37329f39d6f5aada6a90f2a03
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$740.79
Total PnL
$-5.8K
Realised
$7.39
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
1407 shares @ 36.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$611.96
$103.48
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
174 shares @ 46.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$66.96
$-13.04
- YES
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2750 shares @ 1.1¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$61.88
$32.88
- YES
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
6910 shares @ 52.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-3.6K
- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?
1490 shares @ 68.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.0K
- YES
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Kari Lake win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
1017 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 5, 2024$0.00
$-3.05
- YES
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December?
966 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-270.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$312.50Jul 22, 03:57 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $51.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 23:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 03:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.