Gleeful-Humanity-Marsh
0x4f7949179b1fd1f8c25b9d4912c89ca9f563af92
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$18.82
Total PnL
$-194.01
Realised
$-10.94
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- YES
Will the Republican Party win the TX-27 House seat?
20 shares @ 90.6¢·now 89.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$17.85
$-0.27
- NO
Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
3 shares @ 3.7¢·now 19.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.67
$0.54
- YES
Will Steve Morgan be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?
20 shares @ 8.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.22
$-1.38
- YES
Will Steve Reed be in the Burnham cabinet?
20 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.07
$-0.37
- YES
Will Jacqui Smith be in the Burnham cabinet?
20 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.01
$-1.19
- YES
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10?
110 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-64.99
- YES
Will Jonathan White be the Democratic nominee for MD-04?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14?
50 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Haley Stevens win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$1.80Jul 27, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haley Stevens win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$1.60Jul 27, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Morgan be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?$0.88Jul 27, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Morgan be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?$0.72Jul 27, 04:01 UTC
- REWARD$2.46Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?$16.00Jul 26, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?$18.46Jul 26, 19:08 UTC
- REWARD$6.98Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Remco Evenepoel finish 2nd in the 2026 Tour De France?$1.31Jul 25, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Remco Evenepoel finish 2nd in the 2026 Tour De France?$0.88Jul 25, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ilan Van Wilder finish 2nd in the 2026 Tour De France?$0.10Jul 25, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$19.80Jul 25, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$20.49Jul 25, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$0.35Jul 25, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$1.00Jul 25, 01:24 UTC
- REWARD$2.60Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$1.00Jul 24, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?$5.29Jul 24, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?$6.55Jul 24, 15:59 UTC
- REWARD$1.82Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $9.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 09:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.