Sophisticated-Candidate
0x4f7c7387650151e8dc8a9382288dcd900b822b74
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-16.2K
Realised
$-56.62
Win rate
11%
74 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- YES
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
19763 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-10.4K
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
12167 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-28.99
- YES
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.99
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5893 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-90.39
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
5194 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-149.99
- YES
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2439 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-54.24
- PELICANS
Pelicans vs. Warriors
2064 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-340.77
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
1737 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-449.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
1450 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-244.83
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.05Jul 26, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.70Jul 26, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.04Jul 26, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.04Jul 26, 18:28 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.26Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.32Jul 20, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.31Jul 20, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.32Jul 20, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$82.54Jul 20, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.16Jul 20, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$25.82Jul 20, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$25.73Jul 20, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$34.09Jul 20, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$26.21Jul 20, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$247.41Jul 20, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$25.65Jul 20, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$25.63Jul 20, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$25.38Jul 20, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$25.42Jul 20, 21:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 74 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
74 closed markets, 11% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $21.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 20:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 18:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 74 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.