Insubstantial-Membership
0x4f8ce512d67177ff8630d4d99bd8451e6525b9ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$60.06
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 12.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.25
$-8.75
- YES
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
2255 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$16.91
$-33.09
- YES
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
143 shares @ 14.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.71
$-4.29
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
221 shares @ 11.3¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.18
$-18.82
- YES
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?
3661 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-229.99
- NO
Fed rate cut in 2025?
3648 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-449.99
- YES
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by August 31?
1307 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
NATO article 5 in 2025?
833 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?
742 shares @ 20.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
562 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $46.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 14:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.