Wallet digest

active

Activity score

62/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$107.13

Total PnL

$-32.23

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 18

NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
66 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$66.00
$0.20
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
70 shares @ 26.5¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$14.26
$-4.18
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7?
13 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$13.00
$0.03
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?
11 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$11.00
$0.17
YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 58.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$2.88
$-11.75
YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?
59 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025
$0.00
$-8.77
YES
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals?
25 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025
$0.00
$-0.40
YES
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League?
12 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2025
$0.00
$-0.32
YES
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?
11 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025
$0.00
$-0.88
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity47 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry17 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk64 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 4
Avg trade size: $12.06
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 3, 11:24 UTC
Last active: Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:26:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data