Unhealthy-Hepatitis
0x4fc1b01c0d13a98f6ddde19a1d8ed427aa018360
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-44.6K
Realised
$1.1K
Win rate
63%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
75980 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-774.77
- YES
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?
74849 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-568.70
- YES
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?
38660 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 18, 2025$0.00
$-135.23
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8AM ET
29727 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-973.11
- NO
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
21849 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-643.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
19878 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
19613 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-747.35
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
19021 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-120.60
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
17708 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-325.02
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6AM ET
14834 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-440.46
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the exact score of the penalty shootout in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Spain 2 - 0 Argentina?$10.49Jul 18, 21:32 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.41Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.38Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.05Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.67Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$24.47Jun 18, 06:25 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.79Jun 18, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 17, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?$10.00Jun 17, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?$9.29Jun 17, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?$0.58Jun 17, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$33.00Jun 17, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$33.14Jun 17, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$6.20Jun 17, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$71.86Jun 17, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$671.36Jun 17, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$4.98Jun 17, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$0.88Jun 17, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$0.74Jun 17, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$0.08Jun 17, 07:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
54 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $25.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 06:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 21:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.