Wallet digest

active

Activity score

70/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-45.0K

Realised

$4.3K

Win rate

100%

22 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
3076 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-777.22
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
2110 shares @ 33.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-700.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
2100 shares @ 22.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-470.93
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
1988 shares @ 43.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026
$0.00
$-866.35
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
1915 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-657.69
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
1861 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-466.63
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
1715 shares @ 28.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-494.30
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
1700 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-587.96
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
1695 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-916.56
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
1682 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-572.65

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$52.75Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$20.77Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$10.79Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$8.77Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$170.90Jun 19, 11:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$2.11Jun 19, 10:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$249.11Jun 19, 10:15 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$42.49Jun 19, 00:45 UTC
REWARD$1.83Jun 19, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$214.90Jun 18, 21:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$195.84Jun 18, 21:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$122.00Jun 18, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$167.29Jun 18, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$95.90Jun 18, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$15.10Jun 18, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$44.32Jun 18, 21:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$90.29Jun 18, 21:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$108.00Jun 18, 21:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$116.76Jun 18, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$109.16Jun 18, 21:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

50/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 22 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence73 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry71 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk45 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $85.26
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 18, 12:56 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 22 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:18:25 UTC·src:Polymarket Data