Calm-Examination
0x4fcd62601dba43815cbfe253c666123cf81282e4
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-290.49
Realised
$144.99
Win rate
87%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?
9664 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-67.69
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
8296 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-8.30
- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?
5465 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-9.11
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?
5191 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-60.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24?
3700 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-51.64
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
1900 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-64.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17?
1423 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.14
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?
1351 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-20.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17?
1252 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.01
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
1130 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-55.39
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27?$0.15Jun 27, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27?$1.60Jun 27, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27?$7.29Jun 27, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27?$13.50Jun 27, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27?$22.43Jun 27, 02:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27?$0.69Jun 26, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26?$1.85Jun 26, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26?$1.80Jun 26, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26?$1.92Jun 26, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26?$1.05Jun 26, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26?$0.19Jun 26, 05:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27?$0.30Jun 26, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26?$20.60Jun 26, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26?$5.88Jun 26, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26?$13.78Jun 26, 01:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?$37.71Jun 26, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26?$3.10Jun 25, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26?$6.21Jun 25, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?$0.18Jun 25, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?$0.18Jun 25, 20:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 09:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 05:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.