Muddy-Chub
0x4fd5f84a39e45b59a2b0f559d27e6717e5ee4cc0
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$14.88
Total PnL
$-5.37
Realised
$-0.84
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026?
7 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$7.11
$0.03
- NO
Will Bezos announce Washington Post sale in 2025?
3 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.41
$0.41
- NO
Anthropic acquired in 2025?
3 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.03
$0.03
- NO
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$1.33
$0.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?$2.22Dec 10, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026?$268.38Dec 3, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill WeWork declare bankruptcy before July?$2.30Dec 3, 01:12 UTC
- REDEEMAny DCM acquired in 2025?$10.02Dec 3, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic acquired in 2025?$3.00Dec 1, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYAny DCM acquired in 2025?$10.00Dec 1, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026?$276.00Dec 1, 02:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?$300.81Dec 1, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?$302.44Dec 1, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$2.00Dec 1, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$1.00Jun 19, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?$1.00Jun 19, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bezos announce Washington Post sale in 2025?$3.00Mar 15, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WeWork declare bankruptcy before July?$2.00Mar 15, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?$2.00Mar 15, 03:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025?$1.00Mar 15, 03:37 UTC
- REDEEM25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?$1.04Mar 15, 03:37 UTC
- REDEEMTrump negative approval before May?$1.37Mar 15, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump negative approval before May?$1.00Feb 18, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUY25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?$1.00Feb 18, 01:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $32.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 22, 03:59 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 10, 04:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".