Fast-Refusal
0x4fda64253e8e47d123ee86efcc06f986a1bb9ad4
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$101.52
Total PnL
$-114.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026?
84 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$83.96
$-0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 25?
17 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$17.01
$0.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 26?
367 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.55
$-0.55
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?
950 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
700 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22?
700 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on October 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 6?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10?
467 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 25?$17.00May 25, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 26?$1.15May 25, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026?$84.00May 25, 13:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23?$102.10May 23, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23?$102.01May 22, 12:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$102.20May 19, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$102.01May 19, 10:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$28.03May 12, 19:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?$74.07May 10, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$28.00May 10, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10?$1.07May 10, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?$74.01May 10, 10:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?$103.10May 10, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?$103.01May 7, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$103.10May 7, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$103.01May 3, 10:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$102.10May 3, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$102.00May 1, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 27?$102.09May 1, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 27?$102.00Apr 27, 11:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $62.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 11:20 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 13:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".