Mellow-Ptarmigan
0x4fe29c3ff310c72e82198e824e9fa4d02cae8f16
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$11.63
Total PnL
$-19.8K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13 shares @ 94.8¢·now 92.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.63
$-0.36
- DJOKOVIC
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic
34600 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.0K
- ROCKETS
Celtics vs. Rockets
15000 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.0K
- YES
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?
1000 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- COWBOYS
Cowboys vs. Panthers
488 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-292.80
- YES
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
350 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-171.79
- TIMBERWOLVES
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)
187 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2025$0.00
$-88.00
- NO
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-40.00
- CLIPPERS
Spread: Clippers (-7.5)
100 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2025$0.00
$-58.00
- NO
Will Bernie say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during CNN town hall on October 15?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.