Content-Serial
0x4fe92db82ad1dd06d3f56f7cca2a9416df0cc81d
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-7.19
Realised
$-0.03
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?
319 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.24
- YES
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- KOLESIE
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Playoffs
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will Colombia record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will Lindsey Vonn record the most medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will Iceland record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on February 12?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will Metoděj Jílek record the most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- NATUS VINCERE
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Clash Group Omega
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will Canada win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 24?$5.00Apr 20, 20:37 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 23, 6AM ET$5.00Feb 23, 14:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1AM ET$5.00Feb 23, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 24?$0.03Feb 23, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 24?$0.03Feb 23, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - February 23, 6AM ET$4.46Feb 23, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on February 24?$0.10Feb 23, 11:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on February 24?$0.01Feb 23, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 24?$0.02Feb 23, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 24?$0.03Feb 23, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on February 24?$0.03Feb 23, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 24?$0.03Feb 23, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 23?$0.03Feb 23, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 24?$0.01Feb 23, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 24?$0.01Feb 23, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 24?$0.00Feb 23, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on February 24?$0.03Feb 23, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on February 24?$0.03Feb 23, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on February 24?$0.01Feb 23, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 23?$0.03Feb 23, 09:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 23, 05:42 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 20, 20:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.