Close-Lumberman
0x4ff85411384533f199201285d8eabaca70c7e433
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$84.58
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 29-January 4?
8240 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-8.24
- YES
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of January 2026?
7218 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-65.65
- NO
Will Silver (SI) settle at $77.5-$80 in January?
1992 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.36
- YES
Will Solana dip to $90 December 22-28?
1612 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-47.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
1339 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6AM ET
1129 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$25.00Jul 11, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$1.06Jul 11, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.12Jul 11, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals$4.99Jul 11, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$5.29Jul 11, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)$6.27Jul 11, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLO/U 1.5 Rounds$10.02Jul 11, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$1.06Jul 8, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$1.06Jul 8, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.55Jul 8, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.06Jul 8, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.03Jul 8, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$1.05Jul 8, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$1.05Jul 8, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)$4.11Jul 8, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYO/U 1.5 Rounds$10.24Jul 8, 16:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$19.27Jul 8, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYO/U 1.5 Rounds AND UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) AND UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$2.00Jul 8, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$5.28Jul 8, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$61.15Jul 8, 16:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $12.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 03:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 16:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.