0x4ffaf611a0149b5c34ecd3b30e0e2a76a7323e2e
0x4ffaf611a0149b5c34ecd3b30e0e2a76a7323e2e
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$15.24
Total PnL
$-9.6K
Realised
$-972.35
Win rate
6%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.90
$-17.10
- YES
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.23
$-28.77
- YES
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
120 shares @ 49.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.54
$-59.16
- YES
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
120 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.30
$-59.70
- YES
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.27
$-29.71
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026?
237 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-118.30
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?
185 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-92.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on May 23?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 23?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 23?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?$1.27Jul 18, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?$1.30Jul 17, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?$0.26Jul 17, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?$1.97Jul 16, 21:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in July?$1.00Jul 16, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?$1.49Jul 16, 10:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 500-525mm of precipitation in July?$0.24Jul 16, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 550-575mm of precipitation in July?$1.00Jul 16, 07:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?$1.00Jul 16, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?$1.40Jul 16, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?$0.09Jul 16, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in July?$0.64Jul 16, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?$0.86Jul 16, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$9.72Jul 16, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in July?$2.41Jul 16, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?$1.11Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 575-600mm of precipitation in July?$2.24Jul 15, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?$0.57Jul 15, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July?$6.25Jul 15, 23:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 14?$42.61Jul 15, 12:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
64/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
53 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 13:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 06:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.