Outrageous-Litigation
0x4ffba5035905ddfd5e80db2fcbf83a7b4c62119d
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$9.85
Realised
$-6.19
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$800.50
$300.50
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
980 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$195.51
$-294.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 14?
172 shares @ 3.5¢·now 9.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$15.62
$9.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?
3 shares @ 62.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.86
$-0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?
4 shares @ 33.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.45
$0.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 14?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.16
$0.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?
2 shares @ 37.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.84
$0.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 15?
1 shares @ 29.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.44
$0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 15?
20 shares @ 0.6¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.20
$0.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 2.2¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.17
$-0.06
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 14?$26.05Jul 14, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 15?$2.08Jul 14, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 15?$10.01Jul 14, 02:58 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 15?$7.34Jul 14, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 15?$14.80Jul 14, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?$48.34Jul 14, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 14?$13.51Jul 14, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 14?$51.00Jul 14, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 14?$6.87Jul 14, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 14?$61.64Jul 14, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 14?$92.87Jul 14, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 14?$58.68Jul 14, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 14?$1.08Jul 14, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 15?$77.14Jul 14, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 14?$3.12Jul 14, 02:56 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 15?$42.37Jul 14, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 15?$17.52Jul 14, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 14?$111.38Jul 14, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 14?$129.46Jul 14, 02:55 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 14?$55.00Jul 14, 02:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $17.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 02:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 02:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.