Physical-Complex
0x4ffd4c3a408b0f3deafd4789ede10c7b05edfd3c
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
49
Open notional
$85.50
Total PnL
$-69.66
Realised
$1.15
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
380 shares @ 24.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.50
$-5.70
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
6230 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.23
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Christian Union win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?$3.07Jun 15, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYMasoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?$91.20Jun 14, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$45.09Jun 13, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBrazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5$44.29Jun 13, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5$51.79Jun 13, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$40.75Jun 13, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$5.12Jun 13, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?$10.23Jun 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$5.12Jun 13, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$65.22Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$30.49Jun 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?$1.02Jun 12, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Portugal (-1.5)$80.01Jun 12, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Portugal (-1.5)$32.26Jun 12, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Argentina (-1.5)$14.41Jun 12, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: France (-1.5)$17.23Jun 12, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Portugal (-1.5)$11.16Jun 12, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: France (-1.5)$11.49Jun 12, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Argentina (-1.5)$15.25Jun 12, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Portugal (-1.5)$40.58Jun 12, 13:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $60.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 07:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 07:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.