Leafy-Dragon
0x500689ea40a65b011741d714086a1081373b48ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$357.75
Total PnL
$-3.3K
Realised
$-213.45
Win rate
3%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will Porto win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?
500 shares @ 70.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$297.50
$-52.50
- NO
Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
119 shares @ 38.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 5, 2027$44.60
$-0.59
- YES
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.20
$-0.05
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?
3 shares @ 92.9¢·now 86.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.78
$-0.20
- NO
Will Katie Pavlich be the next White House Press Secretary?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.51
$-0.00
- NO
First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?
3 shares @ 84.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.16
$-2.03
- OVER
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5
852 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-528.24
- YES
Will the final be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
811 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-170.35
- NO
Alex Baena: 1+ shots
788 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-260.17
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?$88.40Aug 18, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?$46.58Aug 18, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?$133.51Aug 18, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?$45.20Aug 18, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?$10.00Aug 18, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$2.38Aug 18, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$1.63Aug 18, 00:24 UTC
- REWARD$66.97Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by December 31, 2026?$4.25Aug 17, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$0.65Aug 17, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election?$31.12Aug 17, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$0.00Aug 17, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?$27.63Aug 17, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election?$3.51Aug 17, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election by 35%-40%?$36.62Aug 17, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$37.64Aug 17, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wu Pin-jui win the next Chiayi County Magistrate election?$44.30Aug 17, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$22.78Aug 17, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Enes Kanter Freedom be drafted in the 2027 WNBA Draft?$1.90Aug 17, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cruz Azul win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?$1.54Aug 17, 15:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
32 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $33.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 16:05 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 04:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.