0x50396e4d9d11d38b0dcfd75280101a315f50946d
0x50396e4d9d11d38b0dcfd75280101a315f50946d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$10.2K
Total PnL
$-20.1K
Realised
$-569.17
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
6886 shares @ 58.8¢·now 54.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.7K
$-329.98
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
6057 shares @ 37.4¢·now 41.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.5K
$251.06
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1141 shares @ 79.5¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.1K
$190.03
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
2095 shares @ 39.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$921.76
$104.75
- NO
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" during Speech to the Nation?
610 shares @ 66.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$490.97
$85.20
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
595 shares @ 56.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$467.07
$132.80
- NO
Will Trump say "China" during Speech to the Nation?
1798 shares @ 35.8¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$413.50
$-229.39
- YES
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Speech to the Nation?
1132 shares @ 26.8¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$243.37
$-60.34
- NO
Will Trump say "Middle East" during Speech to the Nation?
471 shares @ 45.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$146.01
$-65.94
- NO
Will Trump say "Communist" during Speech to the Nation?
204 shares @ 48.6¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$106.08
$7.00
Recent activity
- MERGEWill Trump say "China" during Speech to the Nation?$598.87Jul 16, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "China" during Speech to the Nation?$233.49Jul 16, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "China" during Speech to the Nation?$179.18Jul 16, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during Speech to the Nation?$83.54Jul 16, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during Speech to the Nation?$229.06Jul 16, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Communist" during Speech to the Nation?$101.12Jul 16, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "China" during Speech to the Nation?$879.06Jul 16, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" during Speech to the Nation?$411.21Jul 16, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Middle East" during Speech to the Nation?$216.61Jul 16, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$643.94Jul 14, 13:17 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.32Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$3.44Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- MERGEWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$589.40Jul 13, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$215.39Jul 13, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.00Jul 13, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$28.67Jul 13, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.75Jul 13, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$181.82Jul 13, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$22.30Jul 13, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$81.79Jul 13, 23:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $269.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 19:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 16:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.