Elated-Detector
0x5040702e892c92908b38d0f24995dacd22e49b82
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-351.41
Realised
$-9.64
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
140 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-67.19
- NO
Will Bad Bunny say "Doja" or "Cat" 2+ times during SNL appearance on October 4?
100 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-18.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Bad Bunny say "Super Bowl" during SNL appearance on October 4?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
45 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
44 shares @ 42.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-18.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on July 16?
30 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on July 17?
30 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
28 shares @ 17.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.78
- YES
Will the San Diego Padres lose the World Series?
21 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$3.96Jul 23, 12:21 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$5.00Jul 23, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$3.57Jul 23, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$3.18Jul 23, 12:10 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$3.38Jul 23, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$3.28Jul 23, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$10.00Jul 23, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$3.72Jul 23, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$3.23Jul 23, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$5.00Jul 23, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$3.86Jul 23, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$4.39Jul 23, 11:52 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$5.00Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$3.53Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$3.33Jul 23, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$3.18Jul 23, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$3.33Jul 23, 11:41 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$5.15Jul 23, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$3.58Jul 23, 11:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $3.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 10:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 12:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.