Noisy-Ballet
0x504ebf2540b9383898a5a386962a412adf547ad9
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-44.88
Realised
$-11.87
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7?
250 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10?
11 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.76
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10?
11 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.52
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10?
10 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
9 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.77
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29?
4 shares @ 40.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.47
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23?
3 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 7?
3 shares @ 28.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.87
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 8?
3 shares @ 37.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29?
3 shares @ 13.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.41
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 16?$4.48Jul 16, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 16?$5.54Jul 16, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 16?$4.22Jul 16, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 16?$5.02Jul 16, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 16?$3.74Jul 16, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 16?$5.48Jul 16, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 15?$3.74Jul 15, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 15?$5.48Jul 15, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 15?$4.28Jul 15, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 15?$2.95Jul 15, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 15?$5.80Jul 15, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 14?$3.08Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 14?$5.29Jul 14, 12:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 13?$3.06Jul 13, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 13?$3.56Jul 13, 18:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 13?$1.81Jul 13, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 13?$1.67Jul 13, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 13?$1.78Jul 13, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 13?$0.63Jul 13, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on July 13?$0.85Jul 13, 14:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 16:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 13:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.