Wild-Alpaca
0x5086656551ad4ce0ac9cdb4cac2de5e87591d58d
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
144
Open notional
$0.29
Total PnL
$-245.94
Realised
$0.61
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 144- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
73 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.29
$-0.71
- YES
Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
214 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Trump x Zelenskyy meet on Monday?
167 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
146 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Pipeline" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 15?
75 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Bull run: September
73 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.