Svelte-Transcript
0x509b63b38aaaf1a251797ecf31da8f34999dc90c
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-333.93
Realised
$13.33
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 13?
3471 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.77
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
640 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- RUNE EATERS
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A
550 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 13?
373 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-145.52
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
110 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-29.71
- YES
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?
109 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 DR Congo?
94 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
90 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.85
- YES
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Senegal?
80 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
69 shares @ 34.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-23.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?$20.00Jul 7, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: England 0 - 1 DR Congo?$3.09Jul 1, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: England 2 - 0 DR Congo?$12.30Jul 1, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Senegal: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? AND Exact Score: England 2 - 0 DR Congo?$15.00Jul 1, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?$12.32Jul 1, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Senegal?$12.31Jul 1, 09:48 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$1.06Jul 1, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$2.49May 11, 10:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16?$0.00May 1, 14:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$0.00May 1, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs$2.54Apr 27, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs$1.92Apr 27, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$10.00Apr 27, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$10.00Apr 27, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16?$1.75Apr 16, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16?$4.50Apr 16, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?$6.12Apr 16, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?$6.00Apr 16, 13:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15?$6.00Apr 16, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15?$4.74Apr 15, 14:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $9.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 15:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 18:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.