Vain-Terrace
0x50a5b79f86e2eff3601c758d212a06f2bdf8bafe
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$67.50
Total PnL
$-5.1K
Realised
$9.3K
Win rate
54%
76 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?
25000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$62.50
$12.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?
10000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?
87612 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-179.95
- NO
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?
86062 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2024$0.00
$-89.68
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
83087 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-123.13
- YES
Solana above $225 on December 20?
81755 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2024$0.00
$-248.78
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?
61855 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-579.89
- NO
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15?
61467 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2024$0.00
$-497.33
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?
56614 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2024$0.00
$-193.62
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on November 3?
54275 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-502.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 28?$2.10Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.06Jul 28, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 28?$1.60Jul 28, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 28?$0.24Jul 28, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 28?$0.10Jul 28, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.38Jul 28, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.30Jul 28, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?$53.49Jul 28, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 11:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?$55.00Jul 28, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 28?$0.07Jul 28, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.02Jul 28, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 28?$3.00Jul 28, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.02Jul 28, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.02Jul 28, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.02Jul 28, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.02Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.06Jul 28, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28?$0.02Jul 28, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 76 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
76 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 23:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 76 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.