Quiet-Civilization
0x50ae23ef62814515de165c522ff2b4fb36fbd3fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$11.24
Total PnL
$-0.43
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.03
$3.06
- YES
Will Trump say "Intelligence" during his NATO speech?
3 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2025$3.21
$1.51
- YES
Israel military action against Iran in July?
15 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$4.97Aug 27, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael parliament dissolved in 2025?$2.75Aug 27, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$2.22Aug 27, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel conflict ends before July?$0.00Jul 20, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMAnother US military action against Iran by June 30?$0.00Jul 20, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Intelligence" during his NATO speech?$1.70Jun 24, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael parliament dissolved in 2025?$5.00Jun 24, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$5.00Jun 24, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Iran in July?$5.00Jun 24, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel conflict ends before July?$5.00Jun 24, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother US military action against Iran by June 30?$5.00Jun 24, 14:11 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?$0.00Jun 24, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael military action against Iran before July?$0.00Jun 24, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas ceasefire before July?$9.51Jun 24, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?$6.84Jun 24, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael military action on Yemen before June?$0.00May 30, 10:34 UTC
- REDEEMStars vs. Oilers$10.34May 30, 10:34 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael military action on Yemen before June?$0.00May 30, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action on Yemen before June?$5.27May 27, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYStars vs. Oilers$6.00May 27, 23:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $5.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 1, 03:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 27, 18:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.